India guar futures lower on Rajasthan rains

Tue Jun 30, 2009 6:35pm IST

MUMBAI, June 30 (Reuters) - India guar seed futures ended lower on Tuesday as the monsoon entered Rajasthan, a key producer, analysts said.

"South-west monsoon has further advanced into.. some more parts of east Rajasthan," India Meteorological Department said on its website on Tuesday.

However, estimates of a 10 percent fall in acreage limited losses, analysts said.

Guar is primarily a rain-dependent crop and good monsoon will increase output and supplies, depressing prices, analysts said.

"Monsoon will be a crucial factor for guar," said Kapil Gandhi of STCI Commodities.

Combined open interest of guar seed futures rose to 239,430 tonnes on Tuesday from 234,940 tonnes on Monday, while volume rose to 197,380 tonnes from 181,010 tonnes.

Following are the closing prices of guar seed <0#NGU:> in rupees per 100 kg, and guar gum futures <0#NGG:> in rupees per 100 kg, on the NCDEX:

Contract Reuters code Closing price Change in %

http://in.reuters.com/article/domesticNews/idINBOM30912620090630?pageNumber=1&virtualBrandChannel=0&sp=true

India chana falls on profit-taking; guar on rains

MUMBAI, June 30 (Reuters) - India chana futures erased early gains on Tuesday afternoon on profit-taking, but a sharp rise in kharif pulses due to a delay in sowing limited the downside, analysts said.

At 2:42 p.m., the July futures contract NCHN9 was down 0.28 percent at 2,172 rupees per 100 kg, after gaining more than 2 percent in past two sessions.

"Though monsoon has covered main kharif pulses growing states, they are not getting sufficient rains. Sowing activity is still subdued," said Chowda Reddy, an analyst with Karvy Comtrade Ltd. "Profit-booking is emerging at higher levels."

Chana, a winter sown pulse, is priced lower than summer sown pulses like tur, urad and moong, whose prices have risen in the past few weeks on a delay in progress of monsoon.

Last week, the weather office said this year's monsoon rains would deliver only 93 percent of the long-term average, coming in below normal for the first time in four years.

Demand for chana dal and flour usually goes up during monsoon months as supply of vegetables drops in wet weather.

In Delhi spot market price rose by 21 rupees to 2,210 rupees.

GUAR:

India guar seed futures were lower as monsoon entered Rajasthan, a key producer, analysts said.

"South west monsoon has further advanced into.. some more parts of east Rajasthan," India Meteorological Department said on its Web site on Tuesday.

However, estimates of a 10 percent fall in acreage limited losses, analysts said.

Guar is primarily a rain-dependent crop and good monsoon will increase output and supplies, depressing prices, analysts said.

"Monsoon will be a crucial factor for guar," said Kapil Gandhi of STCI Commodities.

At 2:41 p.m., the August futures contract NGUQ9 was down 0.7 percent at 1,841 rupees per 100 kg.

India gold futures little changed; demand weak

Published on 2009-06-29 17:11:25


Singapore - India August MCX gold contract little changed at INR14,624/10 grams, reversing losses following recovery in overseas spot gold prices. "Crude prices have been supportive for gold and contract likely to move in INR14,550-INR14,700/10 grams range today," says Kapil Gandhi, trader with STCI Commodities; adds INR gains will keep prices subdued. India's gold imports in June likely down 58% on year to around 10 tons despite fall in prices, indicating weak domestic demand, says Suresh Hundia, president of Bombay Bullion Association.


http://www.moneycontrol.com/commodity/comm_news.php?autono=100816&type=MKT

India copper slightly higher on overseas markets

MUMBAI, June 29 (Reuters) - India copper futures traded slightly higher on Monday, following similar trends overseas, where investors are eyeing a slew of economic data for direction, analysts said.

The most active June contract MCCM9 was 0.53 percent higher at 244.40 rupees per kg at 4:21 p.m., off the day's high of 246.2 rupees.

The contract had gained more than 1.5 percent last week on fresh signs of an economic revival in the U.S..

London copper prices rallied echoing gains in equities as confidence seeped in that the global economy was improving, but gains were capped as market players bet recovery would be slow and painful. See [ID:nLT663092]

A fall in copper stocks also supported the metal along with improving Euro zone economic sentiment. See [ID:nLT643111]

Copper stocks in the London Metal Exchange (LME) fell by 2,950 tonnes to 267,300 tonnes on Monday.

"The most important data point to watch out for is Chinese PMI data till then we expect copper to trade firm," said Tejas Seth, senior research analyst, SMC global in Delhi.

Investors are eyeing a flood of economic data this week, including China's Purchasing Managers Index on Wednesday, U.S. consumer confidence on Tuesday and U.S. June job figures and manufacturing data on Thursday to gauge if the economy is on a path to sustainable recovery. [nSP459462]

Copper may trade in the range of 238-247.5 rupees for the day, said Kapil Gandhi of STCI Commodities.

In other base metals, June zinc MZIM9 was 1.06 percent lower at 74.60 rupees per kg, while lead for June delivery MLDM9 was 0.79 percent lower at 81.35 rupees per kg at 4:22 p.m..



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India wheat futures tad lower on soaring stocks

MUMBAI, June 29 (Reuters) - Indian wheat futures were a tad lower on Monday afternoon on soaring stocks, while hopes of exports of wheat products limited losses, analysts said.

Analysts said a below-average monsoon forecast may provide some support to prices of the commodity as it may reduce output of summer-sown food grains, increasing reliance on the winter-sown wheat.

"Delayed monsoon has supported wheat prices to some extent .... but it will remain subdued in the medium-term," said Kapil Gandhi of STCI Commodities.

"We can expect prices in the range of 1,075-1,125 rupees for July contract," he added.

Last week, Earth Sciences Minister Prithviraj Chavan said that the 2009 monsoon rainfall would be 93 percent of the long-term average, lower than an earlier forecast of 96 percent. See [ID:nBMB005637]

At 3:16 a.m, July futures contract NWTN9 on National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange was at 1,093 rupees per 100 kg, down 0.24 percent.

India has purchased 24.75 million tonnes of wheat in 2008/09 marketing year beginning April 1, sharply up from 22.26 million tonnes bought the year ago, as per latest data.

India is expected to buy a record 25 million tonnes of wheat from farmers in the current season, up 11 percent from a year earlier, government officials said on June 10. See [nDEL435822]

Soaring stocks may pave the way for export of the grain, analysts said.

According to local newspaper reports, the food ministry has approved a proposal for export of 0.65 million tonnes of wheat products.

India will look at lifting grain export curbs only after watching the progress of monsoon rains and the planting of summer-sown crops, its farm secretary said last week.



http://in.reuters.com/article/domesticNews/idINBOM41031120090629?sp=true

India gold futures up 0.6% on firm global market

Published on 2009-06-26 13:23:52


Singapore - India August MCX gold contract up 0.6% at INR14,773/10 grams on rise in international spot gold price, firm crude, says Kapil Gandhi of STCI Commodities; expects contract to test INR14,850 today. Adds, close of overseas spot gold above $948/oz will lead to short-term price rally. In local physical markets, sales have fallen by 25%-30% in volume terms so far this year, says Vinod Hayagriv, chairman of All India Gems & Jewellery Trade Federation.


http://www.moneycontrol.com/commodity/comm_news.php?autono=100621&type=MKT

India pepper futures likely to extend losses

Singapore - India July NCDEX pepper futures likely to extend losses; last closed down 1.1% at INR12,739/100 kg. "With monsoon progressing well, buyers remain on sidelines avoiding bulk purchases on moisture concerns," says STCI Commodities' Trader Kapil Gandhi; tips contract in INR12,650-INR12,850 band.


http://www.moneycontrol.com/commodity/comm_news.php?autono=100384&type=MKT

India gold futures dn 0.3%; reverses early gains

Singapore - India August MCX gold contract down 0.3% at INR14,506/10 grams, erases intra-day gains on 1% fall in overseas spot gold prices due to dollar gains. "The trend is mostly negative today, with the contract expected to fall below INR14,400 level," says STCI Commodities trader Kapil Gandhi; expects contract to find strong support at INR13,500 as INR weak.




http://www.moneycontrol.com/commodity/comm_news.php?autono=100277&type=MKT

Copper prices slips on Market demand concern

Copper was down on Friday , as concern about future demand with china has stocks peaked and those massive imports numbers have seen could come off quite drastically .

Copper has gained more than 63 percent this year, which boosted by demand from china , the top consumer of the metal and falling inventories , which currently stand at 2,80,350 tonnes the lower since November last year .

From now on “ Its going to depend on consumer , But I see the limited upside for most of the commodities, till fundamentals are not going to imrove much near term . Economic data has helped improve sentiment , but further gains will be dependent on health of economy .

We expect copper prices to trade in range of $ 4850 – 5100 , in Mcx copper futures prices can see support at 232 and resistance at 242 levels.
“ It need to break and then it will if we get closed below $4925 , were we can get quick lower move . support would be seen at 4800 level

Happy Trading !

India wheat futures tad lower amid thin trade

India NCDEX wheat futures tad lower amid thin volume; July contract slips 0.4% to INR1,084/100 kg; volume 680 tons vs daily average 1500 tons. "The lack of any fresh cues led to the market remaining steady within a narrow range" of INR1,082-INR1,088, says Kapil Gandhi of STCI Commodities; expects contract to test INR1,078 today.



http://www.moneycontrol.com/commodity/comm_news.php?autono=100075&type=MKT

Gold climbs as dollar retreat, Crude rises above $71barrel,US Copper hits 8th month high

Gold
Gold slight up on Wednesday,as its appeal of hedged against dollar weakness and worries about inflation concern. Gold futures trading at $961 from $954.70 an ounce on the comex .

Gold futures rebound on Tuesday on a weaker dollar and rally in crude as signs of economic recovery which shall attract investor and trader further on inflation - hedge buying.

The world’s largest gold exchanged traded fund , SPDR gold trust said its holdings unchanged at 1,132.15 tonnes as of june 9th.Market participation are buzzing on the news of economy improved enough to justify talk of higher U.S interest rates by year end.

Crude oil
Crude oil futures breached $71bbl Wednesday,as traders bet that weekly US inventory data will show larger than expected drawdowns on signs of improving economy .

Oil prices is rallying on due to dollar weakness and more liquidity in the market place.”Sentiment is good for oil market as investor are seeing more green shoots as macro data gradually improves, and weaker dollar concerns and inflation factor will be in check list of Participation .


Basemetals
Copper futures rallied more than five percent on Tuesday as weakness in the dollar and strong technical momentum support which attmepted its highest level in eight months.

Future Trends !

Today’s precious metals could see major movement as trader will actively track on dollar turn,and supported by Oil prices,which place gold prices , from last two days we seen gold prices are in underpressure as dollar weakness, but factors keep gold prices subdued .
We expect Gold prices to trade sideways which will be in range of $ 935- 972 .

As, we posted previous that silver would out perform gold , that we have witnessed on Tuesday trading session , which gradually improve its move by good momentum rally .we still feel silver has potential to move further from current levels , traders can hold silver with SL of $14.75 and expected levels are $15.85 – 16.25

Market Talk for Crude oil which breached $71 level , as expected prices shown drastic move on Tuesday business day. As investor and traders expecting inventory will largely draw down which keep market on higher side.

Crude prices are pushing by market sentiment neither its fundamental focus.which could tick levels for sometime.but attraction are still on buyont for crude .
We expect crude oil to trade above $70 levels , could momentum rally on higher side.

As Basemetals are on upfront of commodities nowdays, Copper , nickel are back with bang.boosted as dollar weakness and chinese demand has taken V shaped which could impact further trading sessions.
Trader expect copper prices to trade above $5150 level immediate target be $5300 abv. Nickel and Lead see good momentum tick at current levels.

Happy Trading !

Gold futures to retest $935 on card , Crude prices trend up on signs of economic recovery.

Gold
Gold futures decline below $950 levels ,as the dollar gain amid signs of economic recovery, reducing the investment appeal of bullion as hedged againts weakening dollar. Gold fell on Euro weaker side against dollar seen lower level at $943.8 since May 26. A stronger dollar prompted commodity funds to sell across the board.

SPDR Gold trust , world largest exchange traded fund, said its bullion holdings dropped 0.35 tonnes to 1,332.15 tonnes as of june 5th.

Gold / Oil ration at 13.86 , lower than the 13.95 of the previous session .

Silver
Precious metal declined as investor reduced alternative investment , silver also fell to $14.885 as ounce after trading high as $15.0637, still silver has out perform gold this year.

Crude oil
Crude oil future rallied in asia after a moderate fall over night,extending early gains as the dollar fell againts euro,enhancing the appeal of commodities as currency hedge.
“Fundamentals are holding gas down , and crude oil is trading less on fundamentals and more on consumer sentiment and perception “

Basemetals
Copper futures track sentiment of commodity market ,as an extended rally in the dollar versus the euro helped keed a view on the brader complex. Last week surpisingly strong US unemployement data and strong chinese demand signals,show limited downside for copper as investors choosing to focus on the positives .

Future Trend !

Today's we expect precious metals to trade sideway , as Gold trade in range of $935-965 . if it closed above $961 then it sees good momentum trading level ahead.

Silver futures seems outperforming gold as of now. shall trade in Range of $14.75 – 15. 75

Crude oil futures again on track of $70bbl Mark , it shall move further and breached $72 as sentiment of commodities market as hedged against currency .

In Basmetals corner we expect copper to trade above $4950 level keeping $5250 level target near term .Nickel sees good momentum rally in near term .

Gold futures tumbled on Fund selling,Oil futures settled down profit taking on 7th Month High.($70BBL)

Gold
Gold futures fell $19.70 on Friday to settle ended lower at $962.60 , fund selling slump gold futures as stronger than expected payrolls data snapped their safe haven concern pressured prices.Gold futures collapsed on Friday trade after a surpise fall in US jobless claim underline the improving health of the economy which was the streamline for investors more confident in economy recovery .

Its indicated the bullish jobless data eased worries on economic uncertainity and Market turmoil, reducing gold’s appeal as safety assets .


Crude Oil
Crude oil futures settled down at 68.33 ,reaching seventh month high of $70bbl as profit taking that non farm payroll data fell by 3,45,000 in May.

Crude oil dropped before a report on Friday forecast to show that unemployment rose to a 25 year high in the U.S , sowing doubts about the global recovery.

Future Trends

Precious Metals has totally driven by global cues on Friday trade ,as data shown enexpected improvement in US economy and reducing its interest in safe haven assets class. Gold and silver futures traded on market sentiment either its fundamental ,which will decide future trend for metal market.

Market Expectation are higher on Gold futures, at one side it untouched record high ,which investor has to rethink to put money at these levels. Certainity are well driven on market anticipation which follow by investor and traders.

However , at these level we see uncerntain levels for market , but still their hopes for recovery if global factors supported .Gold futures trading at $954 has strong support of $948 and resistance could be $961 above.

Crude futures traded at $68 which seen in range of 65-70 ,still it has good support of $65 were we can expect good buying opportunity coming on our way.

Happy Trading !

Gold surge to near record High, Crude prices climb $70bbl as sentiment robust .

Gold may be a great bet at these levels . But people should be aware of the risks of buying bullion – either through an exchange traded fund or directly.

Gold
Gold traded near $975 on Friday as traders eyes on the release of U.S employment data ahead , which will show it really economy is growing out of deep slump. Traders cautious on trading at these level keeping eye on Empoyment data reports , They want to see how the market will react to the data .

The world Largest Gold –backed exchange traded fund holding remained at $1,132.50 tonnes as june 4th. Changes in gold ETF are closely watched by market participant because strong inflow into them could be bullish signal that long term retail investor are entering market .

Physical buying impact out of gold after its surged above $900 . buying could expected if traders feel comfortable at these levels.

Crude oil
Crude oil prices hit almost six months high of 69.60 per barrel on Thursday after data showed a drop in jobless claim , boosting market expectation that economic recovery that revive energy demand. Crude pirces continue to expect trade above $69, recent rally seen in oil prices have been driven by investors ‘ anticipation that recession would be last call.

Trading call for the Day !

Today’s we have seen Gold trading $975 level , it could be consolidation phase which we can expect at these levels, But as major Market participation like ETF holding and other official house has been watched keenly by trader and investor , they will decide morever movement of Gold markets now .

So we keep trading range at $965 – 990 , keep eye on US employment data ahead .

As silver recent rally and it closely $16 level , we expect silver to outpeform from these level .we suggest to hold silver position for the target of $16.8

Crude oil prices we expect to trade above $70 barrel as market sentiment will remain robust which could be anticpiated by retail and investor that seen due to economic recovery news. Closely watch US employement data ahead for energy demand.

Happy Trading !

Gold futures plunged 2%, Crude Oil Prices tumbled on profit taking .

Why oil prices have more than doubled from the bottom is that traders are using it as a hedge against U.S. dollar weakness, and a way to play the reflation trade. Supply constraints will become a bigger issue once the recession ends.

Gold
Precious metal slumped as USD rallies, Gold prices settled down $18.80 at $965.60 and ounce .their biggest one day drop we have since in almost two months as dollar rally and Oil prices tumbled on profit taking.

• Gold prices sell off due to dollar posted sharp gains after comments by Asian officials that Asia would keep buying US treasuries even if the U.S credit rating were to be cut.
• The precious metal could go parabolic to the upside as the US Investor becomes fearful of the prospects for the economy and inflation
• Gold / Oil ratio at 14.55, higher than the 14.26 of the previous session.

Silver
Silver future prices ended down 4% at $15.310 an ounce as the dollar’s strength dent investment demand. I Shares Trust SLV fell it’s holding about 3tonnes from the previous day’s record high.
Silver prices climb 43 percent in 2009 to date .for as long as investment buying continues, silver will do well. (But ) it is a very risky play.

Crude Oil
Crude oil prices retreated – 3.5% to settle at 66.12 on Wednesday a day low was 64.95 as an unexpected increase in crude inventory raised concerns about economic recovery. Eventually investors has book profit in oil futures as most appealing assets which has been soars from last six days on higher side.

Trading call for the day!

Last Trading session we have seen precious metals has ended lower side, we see Gold could weaken further, as the metal has corrected sharply after it approached the $1000 level each time in the two years.
Over all pull back in the commodities market lead by Oil, led to decline on Gold.
Gold prices trade in consolidation move, should trade in range of $ 960 – 974

Silver has completely out – paced gold, because it was gaining at the same time from gold going up , and the base metals going up .
We expect silver prices has good support at $14.75 , which it shall maintain , move further it last high .

Crude oil prices seems good momentum move further we can expect , as crude oil trading above $65 which consolidation phase at these levels. Crude to trade in range of $65 – 69 level for the day .
Happy Trading !

Precious metals extended Gains, Crude oil prices hovering around $68

“The crisis will continue on balance to be good for gold as long as it leads to a positive environment for investment demand,” GFMS Chairman Philip Klapwijk said. “It is the case at the moment and will continue to be the case over the rest of 2009.”

Gold advanced for the day as dollar weakness increased the alternative investment appeal as Investor bet for the Investment assets as safe haven against inflation.
Gold prices are supposed to reached the psychological $1,000 level this week .

As Gold prices remain on higher side, the Indian Bullion market is falling jewellery demand and plunging imports of the yellow metal. But scrap gold sales in India are picking up all thanks to high prices. One of the largest consumers and importers of yellow metal in the world, for the last five months of 2009 remain around 47tonnes, far below the imports of the yellow metals that the country used from past years. In 2008, India’s Gold imports had stood around 400 tonnes.

According to figures from the Bombay Bullion Association, Gold imports in India have been dropping since prices are on higher side. In May Gold imports fell to around 15 tonnes.

As spoke to Precious metal Analyst in Newyork ,He said International interest (in US and other Top economies) is rising with ETF inflows in recent days , news of some big players in ETFs, and a large US insurance company also Investing in Gold (which is first )

Gold holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust, the biggest exchange- traded fund backed by bullion, were unchanged at a record 1,134.03 metric tons yesterday. The fund’s holdings have increased 45 percent this year.

Silver climbed to highest in almost 10 months . silver rose 0.9 % to $16.115 an ounce, extending yesterday’s 2.4 % rise . The metal earlier reached $16.20, the highest since Aug,08.

Crude oil slide to 68.55 on Tuesday as investors booked profit as the prices soars from last 6 days . prices dropped to as low as 67.5 in early trading later rose to 69.5 after US ‘s home sales data before settling at 68.55

Trading call for the day !

Today’s we expect Precious Metals should trade sideways , as Indian market expecting gold prices to lift downside which will take positive factor for Imports on gold. But as we are saying international Factors are supported gold prices on higher side , which could break psychological $1,000 level this week .

We expect gold prices has major support of $965 above $990 its retreat to new high.
As expected on silver we maintain $16 level, sees good momentum upside from here on around $16.7 level.

Crude prices seems profit booking at certain level, we expect prices to trade in range of $67– 70 level .

Happy Trading !!

Gold failed to retest $1000oz, Market Sentiment favors Crude oil prices higher

Gold prices soars to $990.2 then fall to $978 level, Crude oil prices closed at $68.58 as driven by encouraging economic data from the US , Euro zone and china. Copper rallied as good economic figures boost Market fundamental.

Gold contract surged to as high as $990 before pull back on Monday. Inverse relationship with USD boosted the precious Metal. Silver prices failed to reach $16 level settle at 15.74 silver price has gained 39% this year .ETF demand for Gold shows signs of coming back. Major Bullion holding in SPDR Gold Trust increased to 1134.04 MT. yesterday.

Crude oil prices started month with strength , Crude futures added 3.4% to 68.58 as driven by economic data from the US , Euro zone and china. Currently trading at $68, near term bullishness remain will be intact.

While Improvement in economy drives crude oil prices further, which rally could tamper economic recovery. IEA head Nobuo Tanaka warned that 'if current oil prices move up very fast in a spike, then it could have an impact on economic recovery'.

Following strong PMI in china and Europe , US Manfacturing data rose to 42.8 In May , which is Better than Market expectation .It’s the highest level since last sept. Copper rallied by improvement in Economic data which attracted Investor and trader to stay long ahead. Nickel also followed by copper which driven by market sentiment.

Trading level for the day !

Today we see pull back in Both metals as technical indicators show they are in over bought zone after days of rises. However we expect rallied should resume after consolidation and the dollar
continue to sink deeper.

We expect Gold to trade in the range of $ 965 – 990 level , Silver would see good momentum trading level likely to achieve $16 .

We remain bullish on crude oil could follow further rally above $68.8 level breached 70.

Yesterday our call attempted that copper could see good rally , it happen fantastic move on upside which mostly driven by positive Economic numbers , we still remain on positive side for Copper and Nickel ,perfect combination for base metals to follow further good momentum rally .

Happy Trading !

Gold attract Traders Eyes on $1000oz, Crude Oil prices near $70 bbl

Commodities prices start the new Month with strengthen factors, Gold and Oil prices trading higher level a day. We remain bullish on Gold and crude oil prices in near term

.
Gold prices almost up by 1% at $987, as supported by Gold and USD Negative relationship which work out further benchmark for the precious metals climbs to achieve $ 1000 oz Mark in few trading session, Technical level also giving indication of consolidation at $985 which could remain bullish factor for Gold in near term.

Silver prices is trading at $15.90 level, however last week we have seen better than expected economic Indicators, which showing Economy has capable to sustain these level and improving some extent. Confidence seen in Traders and investor by taking Net long position due to 10 month high price volatility increased. in silver futures contract.

Crude oil prices extends last week’s rally and breached $67 BBL benchmark on Monday morning .weakness in USD continue to maintain market sentiment at high level.Net speculative long positions remained on the rise. We remain bullish on crude prices with near term target of $70-72 BBL.

We have seen last week’s Major movement has been done in copper, Nickel, Lead.
Copper trading above $ 4925 ( 232INR )level which sees technical breakout, Moreover market sentiment pushing up the prices at higher level, speculative long position are bargain by short traders. Which sees good momentum rally on Monday Morning. We expect copper to trade on higher side for the day .Nickel prices could trade above last closed of Market.

Trading Views for the day !!
We expect precious metal trade on higher side, which will prove good momentum rally in few trading session. Gold prices breached $1000 Mark & 15k mark on Indian Markets , Silver prices would see Trading above $15.75 – 16.25 , As far as Crude oil prices it could be trading above $65 Mark seen speculative Traders push prices higher side on trading day.

A Trader can Take long position on Gold at these level with the SL of $965 at $985 with Target of $1015 and crude oil one can go long at $67 level with target of $70
In Basemetals side we suggest take long position of copper at 232 above with SL of 228 Target of 242 level .

Happy Trading !!